Time out to realign my thoughts and predict the future

After more than one year of class five political storm, (Some say F6 a.k.a. the perfect storm) I am finding myself rather tired of trying to make sense of all the muck that is swirling in the air so I decided to take some time off after the Bagan Pinang by-election.

Since Bagan Pinang, the storm has picked up so I am cautiously stepping out and I find that the ground continues to be soggy and shaky while the winds even more unpredictable at this point.

Any new blogger or political analyst trying to make a mark will have a field day because what will happen next month is anyone's guess. Make one good prediction and you can be the next Rockybru or A Kadir Jasin.

So my first act on re-entry is to find the correct trajectory through the swirling atmosphere. Dive too keenly and I might burn on re-entry, choose a shallow and safe trajectory and people may find it too boring and I would find myself ejected back into the void no-visitors.

I think a safe re-entry path is to analyse the current situation and look for a pattern before proceeding to an analysis and finally, if possible make some kind of prediction about what may happen in the next week or so.

Now where is that dice?

Lets start with Umno. Why? because it is the biggest party and it easiest to find information on them...

Umno is basking in the glory of Bagan Pinang
Umno seem happy with the constitutional changes it has put in place
TWO HUGE MISTAKES because in most people's mind it is still neck deep in muck. The current political situation is like quicksand, if you struggle too much you would sink quicker than if you did nothing. Just liek when you are stuck in quicksand, it is all about upper body strength and calm head. The leaders need to move surely and calmly. It does look calm but from where I am sitting it may be a tad too calm and not that sure.
KJ is still a major thorn in some people's mind but others seem ready to forget and forgive. Time will tell whether keeping him will pay dividends or cost the party more.

MCA seem to be shooting up fireworks like its New Year's
It is not clear if MCA is celebrating a new-found unity or burning the house down

MIC.. well MIC is celebrating the return of Indian voters to BN fold in Bagan Pinang
Otherwise MIC is still wondering if they are really relevant to Malaysian Indians at large

PAS is facing a serious threat of a split, internal and coalition issues are causing instability within the party
PAS is finding it difficult to reconcile their Islamic label with the demands and rigours of a political coalition dominated by non-Muslims. This is true in terms of voice if not number of representatives.

PKR looked like it was going to implode but now it just looks more crumbly than before, the glue of common cause is fast drying up as Anwar continues to impose his will over the party, Azmin too.
PKR is fast losing credibility so it is up to PAS or DAP to take up the slack..

DAP is getting more brazen by the day, they seem united and ready to go head to head with anyone or anything.
DAP knows that it is toeing a very dangerous line right now, if they get too much headline Pakatan will lose much of its Malay support, especially if PAS and PKR crumbles.

PERAK BN rushed their budget through the State Assembly while the DAP-led coalition looked like they have lost the plot. They came but did not vote, they heckled but did not recognise the assembly and ended up looking rather desperate.

So you can see that the political landscape is as clear as pea soup but leaves a less pleasant aftertaste.

Just to add spice to the already boiling pot, three students lost their lives when a suspension bridge collapsed in Kampar.
22 kids fell in the river and three lost their lives.
My question is this: Was the bridge designed to take so much load? Bear in mind that this is a basic suspension bridge that does not have a stable, rigid span, everything sways and gallops to the wind and the load.
I personally feel that the builders of the bridge and the camp owner should have posted clearly how many people the bridge can take at any one time. Reports say that the bridge cost RM35,000 and that is a small amount for a suspension bridge, which is a complex structure compared to a simple slab of concrete. and my guess is that it could take probably five adults max or ten small children. even then there has to be close supervision to make sure that the people on the bridge do not stomp their feet in unison and amplify the span's natural frequency.
I also question th wisdom of the teachers allowing all the students on the bridge at one time... it is an inherently unstable structure. Even when I was walking on a well built rural suspension bridge in Manek Urai (It had a pair of engineered concrete towers, steel cables as thick as three fingers bearing the load and solid hardwood planks) the bridge swayed noticeably when I walked alone across it and when a motorcycle passed through, I had to hold on to the steel cables to stabilise myself. I would not allow all 22 kids across this bridge...

PKFZ is still unresolved and the PAC's report indicates massive haemorrhage of funds from the Government. Now that is s surprise huh?

Someone put single-stream school system on the table again...hmm... where will we find the political will

To add to the surreal purple and pink sky, the Selangor Religious Department arrested former Perlis Mufti for preaching without authority... He is a former Mufti so I am quite sure that he has sufficient paper qualifications. Maybe they do not like his Salafi/Wahabbi leanings... Hassan Ali should answer since he is the Selangor State Exco responsible for Islam...

From where I am sitting, It looks like the country is sitting on a ledge on the 17th floor (mind you we have been on this ledge for some time) and right now we have calmed down significantly but quite undecided where we should go from here.
We don't want to fall down but at the same time we are not sure of which window we should climb back into.

We don't like the window we came from and we are quite unsure about the other window. It looks good enough but we are not sure if it is just a painted front or if everything in the room can bear our boisterous political behaviour.

I, for one, am glad that we have, as a nation, calmed the fuck down.

Or maybe we have calmed down, its just me who is tired of it all and have stopped looking out the window as often as I used to be.

I hope that things really are calmer and we can keep it up until New Year's and see where we can take it from there.

I think my dice is broken... so I predict 'B'.